High-quality virtual and hybrid learning (VHL) has tremendous capacity to expand access and opportunity to rigorous, relevant, and engaging education opportunities for students who need an alternative or supplement to traditional brick-and-mortar schooling. We know these models exist across the United States, many of which have considerable evidence that they can facilitate learning acceleration for diverse learners. The challenge is that most of the current research is limited to how these models are structured, including inputs such as their strategies, tools, and resources, and their outputs, namely student outcomes. However, the inner workings of these models remain a mystery. What happens between these inputs and outputs is what we call the “black box,” an opaque box that holds the answers as to why these inputs are causing these outcomes.
At The Learning Accelerator (TLA), we decided it was time to dig deeper to add this needed context to the larger conversation around VHL. Through our Exponential Learning Initiative, we set out to open the black box of six high-quality VHL models to uncover the why behind their success in accelerating learning for students.
Discover key insights in the Executive Summary for TLA’s report, “Deepening Our Understanding of High-Quality Virtual and Hybrid Learning: Initial Analysis of Six Diverse Models” at the link here.
Peering Inside the Box
Imagine standing in front of six black boxes, each representing why students are achieving learning acceleration in each of these VHL models. We open them, expecting to see clear answers, but instead, we’re faced with a swirling mix of moving parts — strategies, behaviors, beliefs, and people, all influencing student outcomes in unique ways. It’s a lot to take in, and we can’t immediately tell which parts are driving results.
To make sense of what we’re seeing, we need to turn to a powerful tool: a theory of change. A theory of change connects the dots between inputs and outputs, helping us explore the why or black box behind students’ success. Unlike a logic model, which maps out the logical sequence of actions and expected results, a theory of change lets us dive deeper by grounding us in a theoretical framework to explain what is causing change. This creates a pathway for us to investigate what is really happening for students as they engage with these models.
Connecting the Dots
With our partner Mathematica, we worked with each site to develop theories of change grounded in our quality drivers of virtual learning framework to help us understand what might be causing learning acceleration for their specific students. By examining each model’s inputs (what they do) and outputs (the results they achieve) through this lens, we identified patterns across sites to hypothesize what may be changing for students to cause their successful learning acceleration. Despite differences in inputs and outcome measures, all the models share common features: high-quality pedagogy, technology, relationships, and a foundation for self-directed learning — key inputs that drive student success and skill development. The quality drivers framework provides the needed clues about what might be happening in the black box to lead to meaningful outcomes for the diverse learners each site serves.
For example, Bismarck Public Schools’ Empower[Ed] takes a personalized, hybrid approach to learning that leverages authentic, community-based projects to support students in meeting core content standards as well as college and career readiness. In contrast, Novi Virtual offers virtual coursework that mirrors what students experience in person, serving as a program that supports students’ seamless transition between traditional and virtual courses. Novi measures student success using attendance, course engagement, and graduation rates. These two models, along with our other sites, cater to distinctly different student groups with varied needs and motivations for enrolling in VHL. Each model’s theory of change outlines how implementing their strategies in their unique contexts fosters student characteristics that cause learning acceleration, offering insights into why they are successful.
Why the Black Box Matters
It’s often simpler to focus research on inputs and outputs, but if we stop there, we miss the opportunity to truly understand why learning is happening. By opening the black box, we can build a deeper evidence base that tells us what’s working while also helping us transfer these findings to other contexts. We’ll be able to show what’s working, for which students, and under what conditions.
Opening the black box is messy, complex, and resource-intensive, but it holds the key to improving learning across diverse contexts. As we continue co-designing research with these six VHL programs, refining their theories of change, and uncovering the causes of their success, we are building a robust evidence base to catapult sector learning and shift the national narrative around VHL. By diving into the why, we’re not just advancing research — we’re transforming how we think about virtual and hybrid learning, empowering schools and educators to create environments where all students can thrive. The black box doesn’t need to be a mystery anymore. It’s an opportunity to learn, grow, and do better for our students.
Want to dive into, “Deepening Our Understanding of High-Quality Virtual and Hybrid Learning: Initial Analysis of Six Diverse Models”?
- Link to Full Report
- Link to Executive Summary
